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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5 & More Trending News


November 5, 6:30pm ET

Click right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his impartial energy base with an attraction to the idea of Russia’s historic unity. Prigozhin supplied a imprecise response to a media inquiry concerning his current go to to Kursk Oblast on Russia’s Unity Day (November 4), throughout which he had not directly implied that Wagner forces are concerned in upholding Russia’s unity.[1] Prigozhin acknowledged that Russian folks, companies, authorities, and military want to return collectively to battle for Russia’s sovereignty and its nice future, whereas deflecting from the journalist’s query concerning Prigozhin’s reported assembly with Kursk businessmen in regards to the group of an unspecified folks’s militia – outdoors of formal Russian navy command constructions. Prigozhin additionally famous that Russia has all of the elements to realize its targets together with a powerful president, cohesive military, and nice nationhood, which he concluded with an out-of-place greeting from Wagner fighters. Prigozhin later claimed in a comply with up media response that his “independence” doesn’t contradict Russian President Vladimir Putin’s politics as some audiences have interpreted.[2]

Prigozhin’s quite sarcastic statements have a number of underlying implications for his notion of his energy inside Russia. ISW beforehand reported that Kursk Oblast officers introduced the development of second and third strains of defenses within the area, and if Prigozhin’s assembly with native businessmen happened, could point out that he’s trying to increase his affect within the area.[3] Prigozhin’s touch upon Russia’s ”cohesive military” subsequent to Putin was seemingly thinly-veiled sarcasm, provided that Prigozhin has repeatedly criticized the Russian Armed Forces on quite a few events.[4] Prigozhin additionally straight acknowledged that he’s an impartial entity, which as ISW beforehand assessed, relieves him of some obligations to the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[5] Putin’s dependency on Prigozhin’s forces round Bakhmut additionally permits Prigozhin privileges akin to voicing his criticisms of the Kremlin or the Russian Armed Forces with out important ramifications. Prigozhin has additionally coincidentally opened his Wagner Center in St. Petersburg on Russia’s Unity Day.[6] However, Prigozhin is notably shielding his efforts to construct an impartial energy base and form the conduct of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with language targeted on Russian Unity – seemingly each to attraction to Russian nationalists and civilians and to deflect criticism of his pretty overt efforts to construct an impartial energy base.

Prigozhin continues to depend on ineffective convicts to workers his forces. Prigozhin declined to touch upon a reporter’s query concerning ongoing recruitment drives at Krasnoyarsk Krai penal colonies, regardless of beforehand brazenly discussing prisoner participation within the struggle with Russian retailers like RiaFan.[7] Russian opposition outlet The Insider, nonetheless, discovered that over 500 prisoners recruited into Wagner items have died prior to now two months.[8] The publication added that Wagner misplaced between 800 and 1,000 mercenaries in Ukraine, indicating convicts comprise a big proportion of Wagner’s forces in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence officers additionally beforehand reported that many prisoners struggling with infectious ailments contaminated Wagner troops, to which Prigozhin responded that he doesn’t discriminate on the premise of sickness.[9]

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed that Iran despatched Russia fight drones. Amir-Abdollahian acknowledged on November 5 that Iran “gave a limited number of drones to Russia months before” the struggle in Ukraine.[10] Amir-Abdollahian additionally claimed that if Ukrainian officers may show that the Russian navy has used Iranian-made drones in Ukraine then Iranian officers would “not be indifferent” to the priority – falsely and ridiculously implying that Russia has not used the drones that he admitted Iran has supplied.[11] Iran’s affirmation of the drone shipments additional helps ISW’s earlier assessments that Russia is sourcing Iranian-made weapons techniques to deal with the depletion of its high-precision munitions arsenal.[12] ISW beforehand assessed that Iran is probably going already exploiting Russian reliance on these Iranian-made weapons techniques to request Russian help with its nuclear program.[13] The nuclear help requests and the popularity of the drone shipments are each indicators that Iranian officers could intend to extra clearly set up an specific bilateral safety relationship with Russia through which they’re extra equal companions.

Former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Security Minister and present DNR navy commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed on November 5 that Russian pleasant hearth could have prompted as much as 60% of complete Russian losses because the finish of Russian offensive operations in Mariupol in mid-May.[14] Even if this statistic is exaggerated, the truth that a Russian commander is publicly speculating on such a damning indicator of Russian and proxy competency signifies the deep challenges Russian forces face. Friendly hearth usually does account for a restricted variety of losses in struggle however ordinarily nowhere close to 60% of complete casualties, which demonstrates an absence of communication and command and management coordination between Russian forces. Russian and Ukrainian sources additionally reported {that a} Russian rotation returning to its base close to Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast on November 5 drove right into a ditch constructed by military subcontractors with out prior dialogue or warning, additional demonstrating a widespread lack of cross-training and coordination between Russian troops.[15] The frequent substitute of Russian navy leaders, promotion of inexperienced troopers, and cobbled-together Russian drive composition together with Russian contract troopers, Russian mobilized troopers, DNR and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) forces, and Wagner Group forces exacerbate the fragmented nature of the Russian chain of command and ineffectiveness of Russian forces and sure contributes to frequent pleasant hearth incidents.

Key Takeaways

  • Wagner Group financier Yevheniy Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his impartial energy base with an attraction to the idea of Russia’s historic unity.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed that Iran started offering Russia drones earlier than February 24, however unusually denied that Russian forces have used them in fight.
  • DNR navy commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed that Russian pleasant hearth could have prompted as much as 60% of complete Russian losses since mid-May.
  • Ukrainian troops reportedly continued counteroffensives alongside the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued to arrange defensive positions alongside the Dnipro River.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to focus on Russian logistics and transportation in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued to assault round Bakhmut and claimed unspecified advances.
  • Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations within the Avdiivka-Donetsk City space and in western Donetsk.
  • Continued poor situations for mobilized troopers catalyzed a large-scale protest in Kazan.
  • Unknown actors reportedly tried to assassinate high-profile Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Supreme Court Judge Aleksandr Nikulin.
  • Russia continues to deploy personnel to workers administrative positions in occupied areas.
  • Russian forces continued pressured evacuations in Kherson Oblast. Over 80% of Kherson residents reportedly have evacuated.

 

We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We will proceed to judge and report on the results of those legal actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We completely condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity despite the fact that we don’t describe them in these experiences.

  • Ukrainian Counteroffensives—Southern and Eastern Ukraine
  • Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Capture the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

 Kharkiv Battle Map Draft November 52022

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive actions alongside the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 5. Russian sources, together with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), reported that Ukrainian troops carried out an assault within the route of Kuzemivka, 13km northwest of Svatove.[16] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops crossed the Zherebets River west of Svatove and are probing Russian positions alongside the Kuzemivka-Kolomyichykha line.[17] Geolocated footage reveals Ukrainian troops conducting strikes on Russian armored automobiles about 30km northwest of Svatove, indicating that Russian troops keep positions within the Yahidne-Orlianka space.[18] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces re regrouping on this space after a failed assault on Yahidne.[19] A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued tried assaults in the direction of Kreminna.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian assault on Bilohorivka, 10km south of Kreminna.[21] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces carried out a HIMARS strike on Russian positions in Svatove and Kreminna and shelled Russian positions alongside the Svatove-Kreminna line.[22] 

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Kherson Mykolaiv Battle Map November 52022

Russian forces continued to arrange defensive positions alongside the Dnipro River on November 5. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Forces, Nataliya Humenyuk, acknowledged that Russian forces are constructing robust defensive positions on the left (japanese) financial institution of the Dnipro River with firing positions that they may use to focus on Ukrainian forces on the precise (western) financial institution.[23] Humenyuk added that Russian forces are nonetheless working on the precise financial institution. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command famous that Russian forces are nonetheless conducting maneuvers and establishing defensive strains on the precise financial institution, whereas concurrently mining the left financial institution and evacuating civilians a minimum of 15km away from the coast.[24] The Ukrainian Resistance Center specified that Russian forces are making ready Nova Kakhovka (on the left financial institution) for battle by mining underground communications strains akin to sewers.[25] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command additionally reiterated that Russian forces are persevering with to destroy civilian watercraft and have already destroyed over 50 vessels.[26] ISW has beforehand assessed that Russian forces are seemingly trying to forestall Ukrainian forces from chasing them to the left financial institution following a preventing withdrawal.[27]

Ukrainian and Russian sources didn’t report important modifications within the state of affairs on the frontlines on November 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions northwest of Kherson City, in southeastern Mykolaiv Oblast, and close to the Inhulets River.[28] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces used S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to focus on floor targets in Beryslav Raion.[29] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults within the instructions of Sablukivka and Sukhanove, about 40km and 34km northeast of Beryslav.[30] Russian milbloggers and a Kherson City occupation deputy famous the shortage of Ukrainian or Russian floor maneuvers.[31] A Russian milblogger added that Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian forces alongside the E58 freeway northwest of Kherson City, prone to disrupt Ukrainian assaults.[32]

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction marketing campaign on November 5, concentrating on Russian logistics and transportation routes in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian navy officers reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian river crossing close to Antonivsky Bridge, destroying a tugboat and damaging two different vessels.[33] Ukrainian forces additionally reportedly struck a Russian navy convoy awaiting to cross the Dnipro River in Olhivka, about 13km northwest of Nova Kakhovka.[34] Ukrainian navy officers added that Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian assault helicopters in Beryslav Raion, broken Russian space of manpower accumulation in Radensk, and destroyed three ammunition depots in Beryslav and Kherson raions.[35] Local Ukrainian sources reported witnessing explosions in Kherson City, and Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of concentrating on evacuees.[36] Local residents additionally reported a Ukrainian strike on Nibulon manufacturing unit in Hola Prystan, about 14km southwest of Kherson City.[37]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Capture the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

 (*5*)

Russian forces continued offensive operations round Bakhmut on November 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled assaults close to Bakhmut; inside a 30km radius northeast of Bakhmut close to Spirne and Bakhmutske; and inside a 20km radius south of Bakhmut close to Ivanhrad, Klishchiivka, Ozarianivka, and Mayorsk.[38] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin acknowledged on November 4 that Russian forces made advances close to Mayorsk and expressed hope that Russian forces would quickly seize the settlement.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces additionally carried out an assault northeast of Bakhmut close to Verkhnokamianske.[40] Another Russian milblogger claimed on November 5 that Ukrainian forces should continuously rotate items south of Bakhmut within the route of Ivanhrad and Vesela Dolnya to answer Wagner PMC items conducting offensives within the route of  Opytne.[41] A separate Russian milblogger claimed on November 5 that Russian forces carried out an assault on Opytne with the goal of chopping off a piece of the E50 freeway.[42] A distinct Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks south of Bakhmut close to Opytne and Kurdiumivka.[43] The milblogger additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces are persevering with to constrain the actions of Russian forces south of Bakhmut close to Ivanhrad, Odradivka, Vesela Dolyna, and Zaitseve, and are making ready for city battles in Bakhmut itself.[44]

Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Avdiivka-Donetsk City space on November 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian floor assaults close to Kamianka and inside a 35km radius southwest of Avdiivka close to Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka.[45] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 5 that Russian forces additionally tried to advance southwest of Avdiivka to Kostantinivka.[46] Geolocated footage posted on November 5 reveals that Russian forces are seemingly working southwest of Avdiivka close to Krasnohorivka.[47] A BARS-13 (fight military reserve) supply claimed that Russian and Ukrainian positions close to Avdiivka are solely 30 to 40 meters aside.[48]

Russia forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on November 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Pavlivka (52km southwest of Donetsk City).[49] Geolocated footage reveals Ukrainian forces nonetheless management Pavlivka as of November 4.[50] A Russian milblogger claimed that Pavlivka is of nice tactical significance as a result of there’s a highway interchange within the settlement and the encircling rear areas are rocky terrain that makes automobile maneuvers tougher.[51] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 5 that Russian forces continued routine oblique hearth alongside the road of contact in Donetsk Oblast.[52]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Maintain frontline positions and safe rear areas towards Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued routine air, missile, and artillery strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on November 5.[53] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Vilniansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.[54] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces carried out drone assaults in Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia oblasts.[55] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down six Shahed-136 drones in Mykolaiv Oblast and two in Vinnytsia Oblast.[56]

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian goal: Expand fight energy with out conducting basic mobilization)

Continued poor situations for mobilized troopers are catalyzing basic unrest and a large-scale protest at a mobilization assortment level in Kazan on November 4. One social media person posted that just about 2,000 troopers participated within the protest, although ISW can’t independently verify the dimensions of the gang.[57] Video posted by information businesses and to social media reveals mobilized forces threatening violence and chanting slurs at a reported colonel after demanding that he clarify the shortage of provision of fundamental requirements together with meals, water, and warmth.[58] A Tatarstan authorities information company revealed an article on November 5 claiming authorities had resolved the related points.[59] However, Russian authorities are extremely unlikely to have the ability to repair such points and halt the ensuing protests within the close to future. Russian and Ukrainian sources supplied continued experiences of an absence of medical care, shelter, heating, and gear for mobilized troopers on November 4 and 5.[60] ISW has reported on a sequence of protests attributable to under-provisioning for Russian mobilized troopers.[61]

Russian forces face further challenges producing fight energy attributable to pervasive official ineptitude and attainable home sabotage efforts. One Russian milblogger accused inert mid- and high-level authorities officers, navy leaders, and ministerial deputies of legal sabotage of mobilization efforts attributable to incompetence on November 5.[62] Video posted to Twitter on November 4 reveals Russian anarchists deliberately sabotaging Russian logistics efforts by burning Russian Railways switchboards and electrical substations.[63]

Social tensions attributable to an absence of fabric assist for, or monetary dedication to, mobilized troopers are seemingly pressuring Russian regional heads to extend funds to mobilized recruits and their households. Oryol Oblast Governor Andrey Klychkov and Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Governor Gleb Nikitkin introduced on November 3 and November 4 that mobilized residents and their households will obtain further funds of fifty,000 rubles on high of mandated federal funds.[64] These actions align with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s November 4 promise of a one-time cost of 195,000 rubles (about $3,150) to mobilized males and new contract troopers.[65] New funds may also enhance the already heavy burden of mobilization on regional budgets.

Russian authorities proceed to discover choices for coping with mobilization evaders. One Russian information supply claimed on November 3 that Russian authorities, together with FSB border brokers, could examine mobilization evaders coming back from overseas for “cooperation with foreigners.”[66] The ongoing struggle, possible covert mobilization, and potential for a second official wave of mobilization lower the probability that many Russian males who fled mobilization will select to return, nonetheless.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied and annexed areas; forcibly combine Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, financial, navy, and governance techniques)

Unknown actors reportedly carried out an assassination try towards Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Supreme Court Judge Aleksandr Nikulin on November 4. The DNR Ministry of Internal Affairs acknowledged that they’re working to establish suspects who attacked Nikulin in Vuhlehirsk, Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast.[67] Nikulin notably sentenced UK residents Aiden Aislin and Sean Pinner and Moroccan citizen Brahim Saadoun to demise in June on expenses of mercenarism after the Russian seize of the Azovstal Steel Plant.[68] It remains to be unclear if the assault was partisan in nature or the results of in-fighting between inner DNR factions.

Russia continues to import Russian bureaucrats and personnel to administrative positions in occupied areas to additional consolidate administrative management. Russian media reported on November 5 that Dmytro Berdnikov, former First Deputy of Yakutia, is the brand new Deputy Head of the Mariupol occupation administration.[69] Advisor to the Ukrainian Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko famous that Berdnikov’s appointment represents the ”ultimate blow” to the DNR-affiliated occupation cupboard and that Berdnikov introduced his personal administrative personnel to fill workplaces in Mariupol.[70] Berdnikov’s appointment means that DNR management could also be failing to meet the Kremlin’s expectations concerning the implementation of occupation agendas. Ukrainian sources additionally reported that Russian officers are importing medical doctors and different medical workers to occupied areas attributable to widespread refusal of Ukrainian medical doctors to deal with wounded Russian troopers.[71] As ISW has beforehand reported, grassroots partisan challenges and fundamental bureaucratic ineptitude have pressured Russia to import Russian personnel and different civil servants to supervise occupation regimes.[72]

Russian occupation officers proceed to drive the “evacuation” and compelled relocation of residents of Kherson Oblast. Head of the Ukrainian “Kherson Hub” headquarters Roman Golovnya acknowledged on November 5 that because the starting of the struggle, over 80% of Kherson City’s residents have left town.[73] Russian sources proceed to perpetuate info operations concerning Ukrainian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kherson Oblast to proceed to govern evacuation efforts.[74] Russian officers additionally proceed efforts to deport Ukrainian youngsters underneath the guise of ”trip” schemes, and Russian media reported that youngsters from Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, are remaining at trip camps in Yevpatoria, Russian-occupied Crimea.[75]

Note: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorized materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly obtainable info, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the premise for these experiences. References to all sources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.

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