A report by socioeconomic research firm, SBM Intelligence revealed that 64.0% of respondents in Lagos believe that Babajide Sanwo-Olu will win the governorship election, with the majority of all age groups and employment categories also choosing him.
SBM disclosed this in a report in partnership with Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria titled “NigeriaDecides2023: Hope & Caution.”
They added that PDP is projected to win 15 states, APC 10 states, LP, 1 state, and NNPP 1 state for the elections expected to hold on the 11th of March.
Low Turnout: They added that in 11 states more than 50% of the respondents showed an interest in responding to the governorship elections, they said:
- “In the 29 states that we asked governorship questions, we had answers in all, but at differing rates. It is only in 11 states, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Borno, Kano, Kebbi, Lagos, Rivers, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, that we had more than 50% of the respondents showing an interest in responding to the governorship elections.
- “While in Taraba nearly every respondent answered, in Nasarawa, of 216 people polled, only three could be bothered.
Lagos State: The report revealed that respondents believe that Babajide Sanwo-Olu will win the governorship election, with the majority of all age groups and employment categories also choosing him, they said:
- “Of our 314 respondents in Lagos, only 97 refused to answer questions about the governorship election. The big issues in Lagos are unemployment and insecurity.
- “ Most (64.0%) respondents believe that Babajide Sanwo-Olu will win the governorship election, with the majority of all age groups and employment categories also choosing him. 30.9% of respondents had no answer to the question of who will win, while the remaining candidates received a combined total of 5.1% of the vote.
- “Had the result of the presidential election went to the APC in this state, this would have been an easy call to make.
They added that Labour Party has enough momentum within the state to turn into a winning electoral programme. However, they think that displacing the incumbent in a state where the political structures are willing to deploy violence, as shown at the presidential elections, may just be a step too far, and motivated by its first major electoral loss in the state’s post-democratic history, the APC will retain Lagos
PDP is projected to win 15 states, APC 10 states, LP, 1 state, and NNPP 1 state as the FCT, Kogi, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Anambra, Imo and Bayelsa, are off-cycle.
The report indicated that between 16 January and 3 February 2023, SBM Intelligence interviewed 8921 people in the field regarding the presidential, governorship and legislative races and interviewed 2,613 people on phone.
- “All interviews took place in all 36 states and Abuja. For our governorship calls, we have opted to use only responses from the field interviews.
- “ Given the fact that there are no governorship races in Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo and Osun, we expected that there would be a drop-off in the number of respondents for the gubernatorial questions, but we did not expect the drop off to be so great.
They warned of a disconnect from the lower levels of governance is very unhealthy for democracy in Nigeria. The undue focus on the presidency cannot possibly lead to a good outcome for the country as Nigeria’s federal system of government requires the concurrent functioning of the three tiers of government (local, state, and federal) to facilitate substantive change.
- “ Regrettably, it has been noted that the Nigerian electorate tends to focus primarily on the presidential elections, neglecting the significance of elections for the governorship, legislative, and local government.”
What you should know
All eyes would be set on the Labour Party’s governorship candidate in Lagos State, Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour, following the victory of Peter Obi in the state during last weekend’s presidential election.
Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour (also known as GRV) is an architect, activist, and politician. He is the gubernatorial candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in Lagos State for the upcoming election
His background: On March 8, 1983, in Lagos state, he was born to Barrister Olawale and Mrs Nkechi Rhodes-Vivour. He comes from a family of lawyers as his father is a Barrister and his mother a former Supreme Court of Nigeria justice and jurist. His uncle is Bode Rhodes-Vivour, and his grandfather is the late Judge Akinwunmi Rhodes-Vivour. He is the great-grandson of Steven Bankole Rhodes, Nigeria’s second indigenous judge.